Talking points ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix
Thursday, 5 October 2023
A drivers' title hat-trick is within touching distance for Max Verstappen as F1® returns to Qatar, where McLaren looks to keep its momentum going – and Lando Norris tries to avoid an unwanted record.
In years to come, when even the most hardcore Australian Formula 1® fans reminisce over what they were doing when Max Verstappen won his third world title in 2023, they'll pause for thought and then remember they were probably sleeping…
Verstappen's title-clinching drive is likely to come in a Sprint race at 4.30 am AEDT on a Sunday at the Lusail International Circuit in Qatar, home to the second running of the Qatar Grand Prix (October 6-8). Securing the title in a one-third distance Grand Prix will be something of an underwhelming denouement to what has been one of the most dominant seasons in the sport's 74-year history, not that Verstappen and Red Bull Racing will mind.
The sums are simple: Verstappen needs to score just three points this weekend to wrap up title number three, which he can do if he finishes at least sixth in the 19-lap Sprint.
While that – you'd think – is a given, what's less predictable is what might happen on a more macro level at Lusail, which hosted one previous race in the tense 2021 title run-in between Verstappen and Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton, and has undergone renovations since.
Australian fans will want to wake up early to see what Oscar Piastri has for an encore after his maiden F1® podium last time out at Suzuka, while there's non-Verstappen championship implications that are shaping up nicely as the season drives into its third and final sector.
Coffee machine primed and ready to go, here's what were looking at from Lusail.
Red Bull still has boxes to tick
If – we should say 'when' – Verstappen seals his title this weekend, it'll cap a season that has been as dominant as any in F1® history. Qatar is the sixth-last event of 2023; Michael Schumacher won his 2002 title for Ferrari with six races left, while Nigel Mansell's 1992 crown for Williams came with five remaining. The Dutchman – and the RB19 – have been that good.
Considering Verstappen – if he was a constructor – is winning the teams' title by himself, too (his 400 points are 95 more than Mercedes has managed), the spotlight will be shining more brightly on Sergio Perez as soon as Verstappen wins the drivers' crown, especially after the Mexican's incident-strewn shocker in Japan.
On a weekend where sister team Scuderia AlphaTauri confirmed Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda for next year – while announcing the super-impressive Liam Lawson would be the reserve for both Red Bull-funded outfits – Perez picked a bad time to squander the sport's fastest car at the circuit that showcased its strengths more than any other at Suzuka.
Red Bull has, remarkably, never had its drivers finish first and second in the same season despite Japan sealing its sixth constructors' crown. While Perez leads Hamilton by 33 points in far superior machinery for second, it's no sure thing that Red Bull will check one of the few boxes left to tick if Perez's current form – one podium from the past four races – endures.
The list Lando wants no part of…
McLaren's surge since round nine in Austria has been as stunning as it has been swift, and Lando Norris has scored more points across the ensuing eight races than any driver besides … well, you know who. The Brit was an outstanding second at Suzuka, his fourth podium (all second places) this season and a result that saw him ease past George Russell into seventh in the drivers' championship.
That's the good news, but there is a cloud in that silver lining for Norris' season – the result in Japan now made it 10 podiums without a victory for the 23-year-old, edging him towards the top of a list he'd preferably not be on.
Only Nick Heidfeld (13 podiums without victory), Stefan Johansson (12), Chris Amon (11) and Romain Grosjean (equal with Norris on 10) have stood on the rostrum without checking the view from the top step as many or more times than the McLaren ace, who starts his 99th Grand Prix this weekend. If Verstappen stumbles in any way, it would feel fitting if Norris was there to pick up the pieces.
…but a list McLaren are climbing fast
Remember when Aston Martin were a clear-cut second-best team in F1? That was back in Monaco in May, when only Red Bull headed the green team in the constructors' standings; with six rounds to go, McLaren look poised to push Aston to fifth if recent form carries on for the conclusion of the calendar.
Before round nine in Austria – where McLaren first started showing signs of life – Aston had 154 points to McLaren's 17. Since, McLaren has scored 155 points to Aston's 67, with Lance Stroll contributing 12 points in the past 10 races.
With Piastri breaking his podium duck in Japan and Norris right there with Red Bull on most weekends, relatively speaking, McLaren looks poised to finish where optimistic pre-season predictions had them before a wheel was turned.
The MCL60's pace in fast corners – which Qatar has in abundance – looks set to hack the team's 49-point gap to Aston this weekend unless Fernando Alonso can dial up some of the magic that saw him finish third in Lusail's only previous race.
The Formula 1® Qatar Grand Prix 2023 will be available to watch live on Foxtel and Kayo. See our What time does the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix start in Australia article for timings.
