An in-depth analysis of the F1® Italian GP 2022

Max Verstappen’s run of brilliance and dominance once again continued at the Italian Grand Prix in Monza, where he claimed a fifth straight victory as he continues his relentless march to defend his Formula 1® World Championship. Charles Leclerc was unable to convert his pole position start into a race win at Ferrari’s home race, having to settle for second place after being no match for his rival Verstappen. Meanwhile, Mercedes’ George Russell delivered another consistent drive to finish in third place for the sixth time this season.

The Monza Circuit is famously known as “The Temple of Speed” due to its long straights and fast corners where drivers are on full throttle for approximately 80% of the lap (the average throughout the season is around 60%). Monza presents such a unique challenge that it is the only track where teams regularly develop a special setup of the car specifically designed for one Grand Prix. Cars are often fitted with a Monza-specific rear wing which is significantly lower than standard levels in order to reduce the downforce and maximise straight line speeds.

Despite starting from seventh due to a 5-place grid penalty, Verstappen eased his way into third place by lap 4, then just one lap later, he overtook Russell to take second behind pole-sitter Leclerc. Following a Virtual Safety Car on lap 12 after Sebastian Vettel’s retirement, Ferrari opted to pit Leclerc from softs to mediums whilst Red Bull decided to keep Verstappen out according to their one-stop strategy, in contrast to the two-stop plan which Ferrari was executing.

As can be seen from the plot below, even on his rapidly deteriorating compared tyres, Verstappen was able to set lap times close to those of Leclerc, who was on a fresh set of mediums. Following Verstappen’s stop for mediums, he went on to set blistering lap times, whilst Leclerc’s times fell off drastically at the same point, allowing Verstappen to create a lead of 20 seconds over Leclerc by the time the latter made his second pit stop for soft tyres on lap 33. With just 20 laps remaining, a victory seemed all but certain for Red Bull and Verstappen; however, disaster struck for the McLaren of Daniel Ricciardo, whose car suddenly stopped, forcing him to retire and a Safety Car to be deployed on lap 48. During this Safety Car period, both Verstappen and Leclerc stopped for soft tyres with their respective teams expecting the race to resume and dramatic late racing action to ensue. However, with the marshals unable to clear Ricciardo’s car from the track, the Safety Car remained out on the track, and the race ended under the glorified parade.

Detailed analysis of the lap-by-lap distribution of the maximum speed on the straight for the top 6 finishers highlights some interesting trends which help to explain the events of the race more clearly. Note that this breakdown excludes Virtual Safety Car / Safety Car periods, pit-in/pit-out laps and laps where drivers deployed DRS, allowing for a fair and consistent comparison between drivers. The violin plot below provides both summary statistics and the full distribution of the data. The white dot shows the median, the thickened grey bar in the middle represents the interquartile range, and the thin grey line represents the rest of the distribution.

Red Bull has had a significant speed advantage on straights throughout the season, often running the fastest car on the grid, as seen most notably in Jeddah and Miami. Therefore many expected Red Bull to maximise this advantage at Monza, given its high-speed nature. As the violin plot above highlights, the straight-line speed between the Red Bulls and the Ferraris were very close, Verstappen was able to reach a higher top speed of 337 km/h compared to Leclerc’s 329 km/h; however, Leclerc was slightly faster on average at 323 km/h compared to an average of 322 km/h for Verstappen.

This revelation is not as surprising as it may seem at first glance, as unlike many of their rivals, Red Bull opted not to install a Monza-specific extreme low-downforce rear wing. More downforce leads to better performance in corners, allowing Red Bull to be the fastest car out of the first chicane through Curva Grande, the second chicane, Ascari and out of the final corner.

Lower levels of downforce also lead to outer tyre abrasion and heating of the outside of the tyre, causing graining, which is where rubber pieces that have been torn off a tyre immediately stick back to the hot surface of the tyre. This results in an uneven, irregular surface that hinders grip and traction and makes breaking and cornering more challenging. Whilst still remaining competitive with Ferrari in straight speed, Red Bull’s higher downforce meant that their tyre performance was far superior which was ultimately the key to victory for Verstappen, as it allowed Red Bull to run a one-stop strategy for Verstappen compared to the two-stop race Leclerc completed.

Verstappen took home victory after starting outside of the top 5 for the third time in the last four races, again proving that with the performance of both himself and his car at this point of the season, it doesn’t matter where he starts on the grid. The Dutchman now has the chance to win his second World Championship three weeks from now at the next Grand Prix in Singapore.